Crisis India-Pakistan:
Achtergrondinformatie, analyse en nieuws
uit de Indiase, Pakistaanse en internationale media.

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Chalomumbai.com, December 20,2001

Pak army always committed to war with India

By: Rehan Ansari

Early this year in Qasbah Colony, Karachi, I saw a poster that proclaimed, "Shahadat Conference". Its central image was of a masked man holding a machine gun, the background red, as in the afterglow of an explosion. Along the margins of the poster were photographs of martyrs, all the faces were young, some ridiculously so. The poster also had a date for the conference and promised a "telephonic" address from Syed Ali Geelani. It was placed on the outside wall of a house that served as a school.
I was standing in a narrow lane of houses when I saw this poster. The lane was on a hill. As I looked further up the lane, over the rooftops following the phone lines, towards the hillside, I saw a sign that commanded the community - it said 'Jaish-e-Muhammad'. Qasbah Colony is next to the site area where the heavy industries of Karachi are located. It is one of the colonies that houses the industrial workforce. I had gotten there along broken roads, open sewers and open-air trash burnings. In the entire area I saw only one building that said it was a government-run educational institution. I wonder if any of the $1 billion that Washington promised Islamabad for the defanging of the madarsas, will make it to Qasbah Colony. I wonder if the most obvious signs of violence will be removed. For once I would like Barkha Dutt and her Star TV crew to cover Kashmir from Qasbah Colony, Karachi.
I find myself writing the same thing in response to the attack on New Delhi as what I wrote when Kargil happened.
It is not useful for the indignant Indian to point a finger at who it is in Pakistan that is responsible for the Kargil war or the attack on the Parliament. One has to have a compassionate understanding of each of the players for figuring out the unfolding drama. After all, for the players, it is a rozi roti ka masla.
In the case of Kargil it was the army, the Sharifs, the Lashkars, and the public opinion that were the Pakistani factors. Now it is the army and the Lashkars. Public opinion is only important if it comes out as mass anarchy.
This should take the edge off the indignation of the Indian: many things Indian, the public statements of the Indian establishment, the media, the Indian military budget and the Indian nuclear policy directly influence the Pakistani players.
Nawaz Sharif campaigned for peace in the last election, the only prime minister to have done so. He was vociferous about trade with India. In two years, the number of his office items on the trade list between Pakistan and India grew substantially, according to a report by the Karachi Chamber of Commerce.
It is a provocative question whether Sharif was a reluctant tester of the nuclear device. It is also a question whether he was behind Kargil or Kargil happened behind his back. This is not a matter of ancient history: the office of the prime minister may soon come back to Pakistan.
The Pakistani army is, and has always been, committed to a war with India. That is its raison d' etre. It was not raised to fight China, Iran, or Afghanistan. The Indian establishment has a lot of say in the development of the Pakistan army. The Pakistan military strains for the achievement of parity with India.
The last couple of years the Pakistani military budget has not grown in real terms. The country is unable to borrow more. The Pakistanis would not have exploded the nuclear device if the Indians had not. So will they match India, if it reduces its military activities. However, now that Islamabad has followed in the footsteps of New Delhi, it has the confidence of the first use of a nuclear device. However, neither is there a dearth of officers, ex and serving, in Lahore or Rawalpindi, who in their war gaming, play nuclear tactical strikes as end game.
The Lashkars may be the only Pakistani element that is unaffected by Indian attitudes and policies. Javed Nasir, ex-chief of Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI), is on record for saying the Lashkars may be coordinated by the ISI but they have a mind of their own. Good luck trying to disarm them.
Remember Sharif accused one of these Lashkars for an attempted assassination in early 1999. All of them, and the Jamaat, issued statements of intolerance towards a roll back policy on Kashmir back when the Pakistanis sued for peace over Kargil. They are saying the same things now with the Taliban having been crushed. These Lashkars are a product of the mobilisation that the Americans organised to fight the first Afghan war. The Americans did not subsequently demobilise this army.
Ayaz Amir of The Dawn and Tariq Ali in London are a few of the writers who have called Pakistan a used American condom. The business end of the condom is now speaking up.
I shudder at the thought of what the Lashkars may be up to, if they remain the army that they are and have no Kashmir cause.

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Far Eastern Economic Review, December 20, 2001

Pakistan: Gen. Pervaiz Musharraf

Absolutely Secure

Pakistan's president has a new role as a key U.S. ally. But concerns such as Kashmir, nuclear security and the pursuit of democracy haven't gone away.

SECURITY IS TIGHT around the old prime minister's home, perched on a hill behind the parliament building in Islamabad, where Gen. Pervaiz Musharraf keeps one of his offices. Red-capped security guards use dogs and electronic devices to check for explosives and armed guards stand at every doorway. But the general himself, dressed in a khaki uniform, seemed at ease and spoke confidently when he met REVIEW Editor Michael Vatikiotis for an exclusive interview on domestic and regional issues.

ARE YOU WORRIED ABOUT A DOMESTIC EXTREMIST BACKLASH AGAINST YOUR POLICY CHANGE ON THE TALIBAN IN MID-SEPTEMBER?
No. What is worrisome is more in Afghanistan. Everything is moving well up till now. But there are certain areas of tension--of concern, I would say. We have to make sure that the political environment that will emerge in Afghanistan is such which brings peace and stability and ensures the unity of Afghanistan and is representative of all the ethnic groups. And which is friendly with all its neighbours, which includes Pakistan.

THE GOVERNMENT HAS EMBARKED ON A PROGRAMME OF TRANSFORMING THE RELIGIOUS SCHOOLS, OR MADRASSAS, WHICH HELPED PROMOTE ISLAMIC MILITANCY. HOW WILL THIS WORK?
The madrassas were being manipulated by certain extremists. So therefore we saw the strength of the madrassas--the strength is free board and lodging for hundreds and thousands of poor children, which Pakistan can't afford, certainly. That was the better part. The negative aspect was that many of these madrassas were only teaching religious education. We thought we need to utilize the positive and correct the weakness. We have created a curriculum for the madrassas to be adopted by them . . . We thought we should absorb the students in these madrassas into the mainstream of life in Pakistan. I think this will function. I am going to call the religious leaders and take them along.

YOU ARE SET ON ELECTIONS FOR OCTOBER 2002?
Yes indeed.

WHAT KIND OF ARRANGEMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE? WILL YOU PREPARE AN AUTONOMOUS ELECTION COMMISSION?
The election commission will be absolutely autonomous. Provincial elections will be held at the same time as the national elections in October next year.

THE HEADS OF BOTH MAINSTREAM PARTIES, BENAZIR BHUTTO AND NAWAZ SHARIF, ARE NOT IN PAKISTAN FOR THE ELECTION. DO YOU ENVISAGE A ROLE FOR EITHER OF THEM?
No, I don't see any role for these party leaders . . . in the next election. Their parties will have a role. It will be a party-based election. The People's Party and the Pakistan Muslim League are two of the important parties and we wish them well.

WHAT WILL BE THE COMPOSITION OF THE PLANNED NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL?
We haven't decided on the composition. It has to be representative. It has to be a balanced composition which can ensure checks and balances on the function of the government without being intrusive. I don't envisage the NSC having any role in the day-to-day functioning of the government. But certainly overseeing and making sure that the national interest is held supreme at all times by the government.

ON BROADER SECURITY ISSUES: ARE PAKISTAN'S NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND TECHNOLOGY SECURE?
I can say they are absolutely secure. We have no doubt. We have institutionalized arrangements. We have a national command authority, which oversees everything. There are custodial safeguards. The arrangements we have made are totally secure and I'm very sure that there cannot be any proliferation; there cannot be any breach of security; our nuclear and missile assets cannot fall into the wrong hands at all. This I'm very positive and sure of. Now these scientists that we are talking of: These are a few irresponsible people. Whoever has done anything, if we are investigating, then we will move against them--we'll take legal action against them.

WHAT ABOUT REPORTS OF TWO PAKISTAN NUCLEAR SCIENTISTS WHO MAY HAVE FLED TO BURMA?
This is news to me. This is the first time I hear of it. I have no such information. Nobody has told me. I didn't know about it and I have not spoken to anyone on this issue.
[An aide informs Musharraf that the report was sourced to an Indian newspaper.]
India just wants one thing. They want to damage us. Anything they want to do in Afghanistan--the purpose is only one: How to do something which will be against Pakistan, that will damage our cause. That is their sole purpose. They have invited the future interior minister of Afghanistan, Mr. [Younis] Qanuni, there [to Delhi]. They must have planted something in his mouth to say. We are not bothered. I am very sure we want to play a positive role in Afghanistan. Afghanistan has suffered tremendously. We understand their problems. We are their neighbours. Geography, our common history, our common culture and religion cannot be undermined by any actions of India, I'm very sure of that.

ON KASHMIR: WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF BENAZIR BHUTTO'S COMMENT IN NEW DELHI ABOUT ENGAGING INDIA IN NEGOTIATIONS MODELLED AFTER THE INDIA-CHINA DISPUTE?
We certainly want to have a negotiated settlement of the Kashmir dispute. That is what we stand for. Kashmir is the main dispute between India and Pakistan, because of which we fought so many wars. It needs to be resolved in a peaceful manner, through a dialogue in accordance with the wishes of the people of Kashmir. This is our stand.

WHAT KIND OF ASSURANCE CAN YOU GIVE THAT THERE WILL BE NO INVOLVEMENT BY THE GOVERNMENT IN PROMOTING VIOLENCE IN KASHMIR?
There is no government sponsorship of any such thing. Whatever is happening in India is indigenous--it's by the people of Kashmir. How could it have gone on if it was not indigenous and did not have the backing of the people of Kashmir? Why doesn't India open the border and let international groups like Amnesty International to come and see?

COULD A PIPELINE FROM IRAN PASSING THROUGH PAKISTAN TO INDIA ACT AS A CONFIDENCE-BUILDING MEASURE WITH INDIA?
Absolutely. We're for it. It's India that doesn't want it because of their own suspicion. Unfortunately there's a lot of suspicion on both sides.

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Statesman, 20.12.01

35 Pak soldiers killed, 25 posts destroyed

Jammu: Dec. 19. - About 35 Pakistani soldiers were today killed and at least 25 Pakistani posts destroyed in Jammu sector on the Line of Control in Nowshera and other areas of Poonch and Rajouri. This is a retaliatory action taken by the Army against yesterday's unprovoked shelling from across the border, defence sources said. The heavy shelling, started by Pakistani troops to provide cover to infiltrators last evening, was resumed today, the sources said. "They started heavy mortar shelling and fire at 10.40 a.m. and it continued till 1.30 p.m. However, we hit back with a heavy amount of fire which resulted in the smashing of at least ' 25 Pakistani posts. The casualties on the other side were expected to be more than 35. We could see many posts burning from our forward posts," the defence sources said.

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The Hindustan Times (India), 20 December 2001

War Or Peace: Why war is no option

Praful Bidwai

Following the official statements on the culprits and suspects in the grisly Parliament House attack, the public must ask two basic questions: Whodunit? And cui bono (who benefits?). The honest answer to the first is: We still don't know; clinching evidence is yet to emerge.
The indirect, circumstantial, evidence available generally points to some Pakistan-backed Kashmiri tanzeem (militant group/movement). But that's a long distance away from rigorously logical, legally tenable, proof.
The official case has more holes than a piece of gruyere cheese. Its first statement (Jaswant Singh's) held the Lashkar-e-Tayyeba (LeT) responsible for December 13. But the Delhi police investigation, the only one to unearth specific clues, named the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM). Home Minister Advani lifted the police account, but for good measure, also blamed the LeT. Now, anyone who knows anything about Kashmir knows the two are disparate, competing, organisations, with distinctly different genealogies and ideological affiliations.
The Jaish-e-Mohammed was founded last year by Masood Azhar, freed in the IC-814 hostage exchange. Its birth followed Azhar's split from Harkat-ul Mujahideen (which changed its name from Harkat-ul Ansar in 1995, after it was proscribed by the US for kidnapping westerners). The JeM's roots are solidly Deobandi. Ideologically, it is affiliated to the Jamiat-ul-Ulema-i-Pakistan, which was also the main inspiration for the Taliban.
The LeT was established in 1987 by Hafeez Mohammed Saeed, a Gujjar and former theology professor strongly influenced by the ultra-orthodox Saudi Arabian Wahhabi school. The LeT is the only Kashmiri group in the Al-Qaeda network.
It shot to fame with its suicide-bomber (fidayeen) attacks, like the audacious 1999 action on Badamibagh cantonment. The LeT is run by Markaz-Dawatul-Irshad which defines its compass in trans-Kashmir terms - unlike the JeM.
The JeM's headquarters is in Sindh, at Binori, a Karachi suburb. The LeT is run from Muridke, near Lahore in Punjab. Both were patronised by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence. But the two have never done a joint operation in the Valley, according to knowledgeable Kashmiris. Would they do one in New Delhi? Or was the LeT's name tagged on because it is already on a US watchlist and easy to brand a pariah?
The government has a lot of explaining to do. So far, it hasn't even disclosed the specific identities of the five (or was it six?) attackers, nor their organisational affiliations. They are all purportedly Pakistani. But the arrested suspects like Syed Geelani are all Indian.
Their mutual links must be carefully investigated and continually established. It won't do to present a 10-month old meeting with Ghazi Baba as adequate evidence. Different accounts of the sequence of events, personal locations, and explosives used (RDX, according to early reports, and crude ammonium nitrate, according to police) have to be reconciled.
Cui bono? It is far too easily assumed that an official Pakistani agency is behind the attack (eg ISI). Yet, however official dishonourable Islamabad's intentions - as indeed they are, on past evidence - it makes little political sense for Pervez Musharraf to up the ante via the Parliament attack, just when he is under American surveillance and orders to clean up terrorist bases.
Barring an arcane US-Pakistan conspiracy, the most plausible explanation is either that some militant group acting solo, or an agency not fully under Musharraf's control, masterminded the operation. It was conducted remarkably amateurishly by tanzeem standards. In either case, the appropriate riposte can't be based on assumption of Islamabad's direct culpability. If December 13 has weakened Musharraf, an open-ended, untargeted response would damage India.
In plain truth, December 13 was neither an act of war nor a casus belli, or rationale for war. India can only demean itself by militarily aping Israel or Washington - which three months down the line is still presenting 'clinching' evidence against the Al-Qaeda.
This doesn't argue that India should minimise or condone the gravity of December 13, let alone do nothing. There are many options between inaction and armed attacks on terrorist training camps (most of which, the armed services chiefs are quoted as saying, are "no more than drill squares and firing ranges", located "deep inside Pakistan territory").
It is easy enough to invent punitive diplomatic steps such as recalling ambassadors, or pruning mission sizes. But they all assume Islamabad's guilt - before it's proved. They are also liable to be seen as expressions of India's frustration, and will damage longer-term India-Pakistan reconciliation. After all, the two have to live with each other. India would be equally ill-advised to rely on Washington's 'friendly' intervention - as Vajpayee insists on doing. This won't be impartial, but guided by narrow US self-interest.
The first logical, dignified, mature step would be to take the issue to the UN Security Council, and demand that Pakistan take verifiable action against terrorist groups within its borders, in keeping with Resolution 1373 - on pain of sanctions.
Secondly, New Delhi must overcome its allergy towards an International Criminal Court, which is about to come into being. Its argument against this worldwide criminal jurisprudence forum, sorely needed to keep pace with crime itself, is based on an unconscionably narrow idea of national sovereignty. And thirdly, we must begin sorting out the mess in Kashmir, by resuming the ceasefire and dialogue process, besides fully respecting human rights.
It would be utterly suicidal for India to launch military action - 'hot pursuit', 'surgical' attacks on training camps, or brief forays across the LoC. Besides being legally dubious, such adventurism gravely risks heightened conflict, leading to war, with possible escalation to the nuclear level. Nuclear wars can't be won and mustn't be fought.
India committed a grave blunder by crossing the Nuclear Rubicon in 1998. It further compounded the mistake by indulging in reckless nuclear threat-mongering during and after Kargil. It must now reverse the damage it inflicted on its own security in going down the slippery nuclear slope.
Doing this means fighting our ultra-nationalists' pathological nuclear addiction and discarding New Delhi's pitiably pusillanimous stand on Washington's flagrant assault on the Anti-Ballistic Missile treaty in order to launch the 'Star Wars'-style National Missile Defence. NMD spells a Second Nuclear Age, no less.

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Asia Times, December 20, 2001

Pakistan rethink over support of militants

By Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - Last week's attack on the Indian parliament building in New Delhi - widely blamed on terrorists trained in Pakistan - is the latest turn of events to add to Islamabad's troubles.
Pakistan now has an essentially unfriendly neighbor across the 1,300 kilometers of the border its shares with Afghanistan, and most of the military and strategic objectives that caused the United States to woo Islamabad in the war against terrorism have been achieved. Immediately after the attack in New Delhi, in which five terrorists and eight Indian security force members died, the Indian government blamed Kashmiri militants. Subsequently, it has pointed the finger at the Pakistani-based Lashkar-i-Taiba (Army of the Pure) as responsible for the attack, with Indian Home Minister L K Advani on Tuesday repeating the accusation in parliament.
India has now given Pakistan a deadline of a few days to close down the offices of the Lashkar-i-Taiba as well as the Jaish-i-Mohammed, another militant group, and warned of "dire consequences" if it does not. Delhi says that these two groups are based in Pakistan and receive training and support from the country's intelligence service, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Islamabad denies this, saying that India has provided no evidence to support its allegations, and says that it "will not be intimidated".
India has seized the opportunity launch a diplomatic initiative to push its contention that the separatist struggle being waged in Kashmir is actually terrorism. The Jaish-e-Mohammad and Lashkar-e-Taiba are Islamic groups fighting to separate the mostly Muslim region of Kashmir from India.
Following India's warning, the Pakistani military leadership under President General Pervez Musharraf called urgent meetings at which it was concluded that Pakistan would not bow down to the Indian demands as such a move would demoralize the military struggle in Kashmir, which has engaged several thousand Indian forces in the Kashmiri Valley. Musharraf has also warned that any "adventurism" on the part of india in response to the attacks would be firmly resisted. However, sources say that Pakistan's strategic planners are concerned over how the United States will react to this hard line as Washington has already branded the Jaish-i-Mohammed and the group from which it separated, the Harkatul Mujahideen, as terrorist organizations, and many US publications, thanks to Indian lobbyists in America, are promoting the idea that these organizations have strong links with Osama bin Laden's Al-Qaeda terror network.
So, once again, just as it was urged by the United States to turn its back on the Taliban in Afghanistan, which it had nurtured over the years, Pakistan is caught between the devil and the deep blue sea over how it handles the militant groups in the country.
While the war in Afghanistan was still raging, the United States was prepared to let Pakistan, its frontline ally, handle the militant organizations as it saw fit. The situation might be different now with Pakistan's usefulness exhausted.
The US has succeeded in having an acceptable interim leadership installed in Kabul, it has fostered strong relations in the Pashtun belt in the east of Afghanistan and its forces have established a strong presence in the Central Asian republics. Within Afghanistan, they have secured key airports, so they no longer need Pakistani airbases, a key reason for courting Musharraf in the first place. Indeed, the US is likely now to turn on Pakistan, forcing it to take action against senior Taliban leaders - possibly including bin Laden - who are thought to be sheltering in the semi-autonomous Pakistani tribal areas. And there will be pressure to take action against pro-Taliban leaders in the tribal belt to nip any possible revival of the Taliban movement in the bud.
All of this could force Islamabad to rethink its Kashmir policy. The Kashmiri struggle was connected to the Afghan war against the Soviets of 1979-89 in that the struggle for an independent state was converted into a jihad so that foreign mujahideen fighters would join locals in trying to force India to give Kashmiris the right to self-determination.
This policy could now backfire on Pakistan. The Kashmiri uprising in Indian Kashmir began in 1989. The ISI, then under the command of General Akhtar Abdur Rehman, started making a case for a Kashmiri jihad in the mid-1980s. Rehman was subsequently elevated to the position of chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee. He died in an air crash that also killed military dictator General Zia ul-Haq, on August 17, 1988.
Kashmiris have been fighting for self-determination ever since the partition of British India in 1947, when, despite the fact of a majority Muslim population, the region was incorporated into India with the permission of the maharajah of the state. The rulers of princely states had been given the choice to freely accede to either India or Pakistan, or to remain independent.
After skirmishes in previous years, heavy fighting broke out again in 1965 between India and Pakistan over Kashmir. A ceasefire was established in September 1965. Indian prime minister Lal Bhadur Shastri and Pakistani president M Ayub Khan signed the Tashkent agreement on January 1, 1966. They resolved to try to end the dispute by peaceful means. However, it was at this time that the Kashmiri leadership decided that they would fight for their own fate, with one possible option being an independent state ruled by Kashmiris, whether they be Sikhs, Hindus or Muslims.
Rehman subsequently prepared the grounds to convert this struggle into a jihad. The leadership of the Jamu Kashmir Libration Front were declared traitors in Pakistan, and the ISI promoted the Jamaat-i-Islami, which had a strong network in Indian Kashmir, to be the main force for the Kashmir jihad.
Thus, the plan was that as soon as the Afghan jihad had successfully seen off the Soviets, mujahideen would pour into Kashmir, and as with Afghanistan, Islamic countries would lend their support. Rehman did not survive to see his plans come to fruition though. He was succeeded as head of the ISI by Hamid Gul, who adopted the same policy approach.
During the Afghan resistance struggle, three Pakistani-based militant organizations fought alongside Afghan groups - the Al-Badr, the Harkatul Mujahideen and the Markaz-i-Dawat-u-Irshad. Al Badr was an off-shoot of the Jamaat-i-Islami Pakistan, the premier fundamentalist party in the country and the real force behind the Afghan resistance movement. The Harkatul Mujahideen was affiliated with Islamic seminaries of the Deobandi school of thought, and the Markaz-i-Dawat-u-Irshad was connected with the wahabi school of thought.
All three of these organizations were given a role to promote a militant struggle in Kashmir, with the Al-Badr playing a pivotal role. Initially, the Jamaat-i-Islami helped fire the spirit of the Kashmir jihad among youths, who were then sent to Afghanistan for training and fighting experience.
The Al-Badr organized their training at Khost. Later, the youths were organized under the banner of the Hizbul Mujahideen, which was a purely Kashmiri-based militant organization ideologically affiliated with the Jamaat-i-Islami, and which wanted Kashmir's accession into Pakistan. This proved to be a successful formula and laid the foundations for the struggle that continues today.
However, the Harkatul Mujahideen failed to attract mass support in Kashmir Islamic seminaries and thus was unable to organize an effective indigenous movement. The Harkat, therefore, continued to train Pakistani youths to send to Kashmir, and its chief is a Pakistani. Because of its Pakistani flavor and its vocal opposition to the US presence in Pakistan, the US listed it as a terrorist organization.
Before this declaration, it had renamed itself the Harkatul Ansar. As a result, the US banned the "Harktul Ansar". So, soon after the US announcement, it reverted to the Harkatul Mujahideen and continued its operations. A breakaway faction of the Harkat is the Jaish-i-Mohammed, which is also included on the US terror list. Splits also occurred in the Markaz-i-Dawat-u-Irshad, leading to the establishment of the Lashkar-i-Taiba. The purpose was to get financial aid from Saudi Arabia because the Lashkar came from the wahabi school of thought. But since there are almost no wahabi influences in Kashmir, they have failed to organize an indigenous movement and are seen as foreign infiltrators.
Now, the Jaish-i-Mohammed and the Lashkar-i-Taiba have been thrust into the limelight. Clearly, they are not indiginous movements, and their senior leaders are all Pakistani. In the past, when these objections were raised, the Pakistani government took a strong stand that a jihad is a part of Islam, and any Muslim wanting to join in one could not be stopped by Pakistan.
Given recent events, though, Pakistan will find it difficult to stick with this policy.

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The News International (Pakistan), 20 December 2001

110 Pakistani Taliban airlifted to India

ISLAMABAD: Two top Pakistani officials claimed Wednesday that Afghanistan's northern alliance handed over 110 detained Pakistani Muslim militants to India and that Pakistan's archrival then airlifted them to New Delhi for interrogation. Indian officials said they had no information on the allegation.
The Pakistani officials, who spoke only on condition of anonymity, accused India of planning to use the Pakistanis who fought with Osama bin Laden's al-Qaida network to defame its neighbour. [...].

Full Text at: http://jang.com.pk/thenews/dec2001-daily/20-12-2001/main/main3.htm.



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